Prediction markets: podcast episodes, research and news
Overview
Prediction markets let people trade on the outcome of future events. Each contract pays out if an event happens, so its price works as a live estimate of how likely that outcome is. A contract that pays $1 and trades at 63 cents implies roughly a 63% chance. That simple mechanism has become one of the most debated corners of crypto and finance. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now draw heavy volume, court fights and close attention from regulators.
This hub collects everything Hodl Up has published on the subject. Its anchor is the Hodl Up Prediction Markets Report 2026 and the interview series we recorded for it. Dr. Robin Hanson, the economist who first proposed futarchy, explains decision markets. He also explains why traders who lose end up paying for the information everyone else uses. Dr. Rajiv Sethi of Columbia University unpacks the paradox at the heart of prediction market manipulation and what it means for platforms and traders. Wasim Fukase of Stratium explains how prediction markets are arriving on Hyperliquid.
Prediction markets also show up across the rest of the archive. James Fry explains how UMA's optimistic oracle settles disputes on Polymarket. That is the part of the stack that decides what actually happened when a market resolves. Our news desk covers the regulatory side as it moves, from state lawsuits to federal rulemaking. Our research compares the platforms side by side, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
We cover prediction markets because they sit where crypto, finance and forecasting meet. They raise questions that don't have settled answers yet:
- whether a market is a bet or a forecast
- who should regulate it
- how to stop insider trading
- whether markets can guide decisions instead of just predicting them
The guests here disagree on several of these, and that is the point.
Start with the report if you want the full picture, then use the episodes for the arguments behind it. The latest episodes, research, news and guests below update automatically as we publish.
Episodes5 episodes
Futarchy and Prediction Markets: Robin Hanson Interview
Robin Hanson on futarchy, decision markets, why insider trading complaints are opportunistic, and why prediction markets should be judged against journalism.
Hyperliquid Prediction Markets: The Binary Options Play
Stratium founder Wasim Fukase on building Hyperliquid prediction markets, why he calls them binary options, and why liquidity is still the binding problem.
Prediction Market Manipulation: The Paradox Explained
Economist Rajiv Sethi separates three kinds of prediction market manipulation and explains why a market nobody can rig is a market nobody believes in.
Crypto Communities Are Officially Dead
CT is on the decline, finally cracking the echo chamber that once played a major role in Web3. Are crypto communities finally dead? What's next?
Precision Prediction Markets: Better Than Prediction Markets?
Jong-Chan Chung from Trepa joins Hodl Up to break down prediction markets, precision predictions, and what this shift means for crypto’s future.
Research and guides9 articles
Newslatest 12 of 20
Guests who discussed it5 guests
Dr. Rajiv SethiEconomist at Columbia University1 episodePrediction marketsMarket structure
Dr. Robin HansonAmerican Economist at George Mason1 episodePrediction marketsDAOs
Wasim FukaseFounder & CEO at Stratium1 episodePrediction marketsDeFi
James FryHead of Marketing at UMA & Across Protocol1 episodePrediction marketsEthereum
Jong-Chan ChungFounder at Trepa1 episodePrediction marketsThe report
Frequently asked questions
What is a prediction market?
A market where people buy and sell contracts tied to future events. Each contract pays out if the event happens, so its price reflects the crowd's estimate of the probability. Polymarket and Kalshi are the best-known examples.
What is futarchy?
A form of governance proposed by economist Robin Hanson. Voters choose the goals, and prediction markets choose the policies most likely to reach them. Hanson explains how decision markets would work in his Hodl Up interview.
Can prediction markets be manipulated?
People try, and it is one of the central questions in the field. Rajiv Sethi's episode and the integrity chapters of our report cover how manipulation works and what platforms can do about it.
Where can I read the Hodl Up Prediction Markets Report 2026?
On hodluppod.com/reports/prediction-market-report-2026, where its summary, key findings and charts are on the page and the full report is a free PDF. The Prediction Markets Report 2026 series hub collects the interviews recorded for it.