https://hodluppod.com/blogs Independent crypto, markets and Web3 news, research and analysis from the Hodl Up editorial desk. en © 2026 Hodl Up Podcast Wed, 14 Oct 2026 16:16:43 GMT https://hodluppod.com/assets/brand/hodlup-logo.png https://hodluppod.com/blogs https://hodluppod.com/blog/wisdom-of-crowds-wrong-slogan-for-prediction-markets https://hodluppod.com/blog/wisdom-of-crowds-wrong-slogan-for-prediction-markets Thu, 01 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets Roughly 3% of traders drive price discovery and the top 1% take 76.5% of profits. The concentration evidence, plus Hanson's and Sethi's responses to it. https://hodluppod.com/blog/what-the-fed-found-when-it-tested-kalshi https://hodluppod.com/blog/what-the-fed-found-when-it-tested-kalshi Thu, 01 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets A Fed working paper found Kalshi's macro markets well calibrated, with a perfect record before FOMC decisions. Why the result is narrower than it sounds. https://hodluppod.com/blog/hyperliquid-hip-4-staked-slashable-resolution https://hodluppod.com/blog/hyperliquid-hip-4-staked-slashable-resolution Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets HIP-4 puts a slashable HYPE stake behind every prediction market resolution, unlike UMA's $750 bond. Here is what it fixes and what is still untested. https://hodluppod.com/blog/prediction-markets-vs-polls-june-2024-debate https://hodluppod.com/blog/prediction-markets-vs-polls-june-2024-debate Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets Markets repriced within 30 minutes of the June 2024 debate while forecast models were suspended. Here is where markets beat polls, and where they don't. https://hodluppod.com/news/new-york-ag-files-complaint-against-prediction-market-qcx-llc https://hodluppod.com/news/new-york-ag-files-complaint-against-prediction-market-qcx-llc Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets The New York Attorney General has initiated legal action against QCX LLC, operator of the Polymarket prediction market, alleging violations of state law. https://hodluppod.com/news/kalshiex-llc-case-sees-new-procedural-order-in-maryland https://hodluppod.com/news/kalshiex-llc-case-sees-new-procedural-order-in-maryland Sun, 27 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets A federal court in Maryland entered a new procedural order in KalshiEX LLC v. John Martin, while the case's federal preemption question sits on appeal. https://hodluppod.com/news/cftc-attorney-files-appearance-in-johnson-prediction-market-case https://hodluppod.com/news/cftc-attorney-files-appearance-in-johnson-prediction-market-case Sun, 27 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets A recent filing in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas indicates ongoing legal action by the CFTC against individuals involved in alleged unregistered prediction markets. https://hodluppod.com/news/sixth-circuit-reverses-kalshi-injunction-rules-sports-contracts https://hodluppod.com/news/sixth-circuit-reverses-kalshi-injunction-rules-sports-contracts Sat, 26 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets The Sixth Circuit reversed an injunction that shielded Kalshi from Tennessee gambling law, ruling that its sports event contracts are not swaps. https://hodluppod.com/news/robinhood-files-supreme-court-petition-on-prediction-market-lega https://hodluppod.com/news/robinhood-files-supreme-court-petition-on-prediction-market-lega Sat, 26 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets Robinhood has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether federal commodities law or state gambling rules govern sports event contracts. https://hodluppod.com/news/indian-gaming-association-prediction-markets-blocked-on-tribal-l https://hodluppod.com/news/indian-gaming-association-prediction-markets-blocked-on-tribal-l Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets The Indian Gaming Association's recent report clarifies that prediction markets are currently prohibited from offering sports gambling on Indian lands, impacting potential expansion. https://hodluppod.com/news/aga-study-gamblers-show-higher-financial-literacy-prediction-mar https://hodluppod.com/news/aga-study-gamblers-show-higher-financial-literacy-prediction-mar Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets A NORC study for the American Gaming Association found gamblers more financially literate, while prediction market users overestimate their math skills. https://hodluppod.com/blog/rothera-explained-why-robinhood-stopped-renting-kalshis-exchange https://hodluppod.com/blog/rothera-explained-why-robinhood-stopped-renting-kalshis-exchange Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets Robinhood's share of Kalshi volume fell from 50% to 17.5% after it bought an exchange with Susquehanna. This is what Rothera is, and why it happened. https://hodluppod.com/blog/every-prediction-market-platform-in-2026 https://hodluppod.com/blog/every-prediction-market-platform-in-2026 Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket, Rothera, Underdog, Hyperliquid HIP-4 and the oracle layer beneath them: what each platform is, and the risks that come with it. https://hodluppod.com/news/polymarket-lists-new-texas-house-race-event-contracts https://hodluppod.com/news/polymarket-lists-new-texas-house-race-event-contracts Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets Polymarket listed event contracts on four Texas House races along the southern border, giving market-based odds for each closely watched contest. https://hodluppod.com/news/arxiv-study-prediction-markets-outperform-weather-forecasts https://hodluppod.com/news/arxiv-study-prediction-markets-outperform-weather-forecasts Wed, 23 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets An arXiv preprint using five years of Kalshi data finds prediction markets forecast tomorrow's high temperature better than public weather forecasts. https://hodluppod.com/blog/kalshi-vs-polymarket-volume-fees-custody-and-legal-status-compared https://hodluppod.com/blog/kalshi-vs-polymarket-volume-fees-custody-and-legal-status-compared Wed, 23 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Research Kalshi took 82% of August 2026 volume, but the two venues differ on custody, category mix and legal exposure. A full comparison from Hodl Up Research. https://hodluppod.com/blog/nobody-knows-how-big-prediction-markets-are-including-the-platforms https://hodluppod.com/blog/nobody-knows-how-big-prediction-markets-are-including-the-platforms Wed, 23 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Research Venues count volume four ways, aggregators revise months by billions, and up to 60% of one venue's volume was wash traded. So no honest size exists. https://hodluppod.com/news/global-gaming-expo-adds-prediction-markets-panel-to-2026 https://hodluppod.com/news/global-gaming-expo-adds-prediction-markets-panel-to-2026 Tue, 22 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets The inclusion of event contracts on the main stage of the premier gaming industry expo signals growing mainstream recognition and discussion of forecasting markets. https://hodluppod.com/news/nevada-federal-court-denies-injunction-against-kalshi https://hodluppod.com/news/nevada-federal-court-denies-injunction-against-kalshi Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Prediction Markets A federal court in Nevada denied the state's motion for a preliminary injunction against KalshiEX and sent the case back to state court. https://hodluppod.com/news/northern-california-court-extends-robinhood-prediction-market https://hodluppod.com/news/northern-california-court-extends-robinhood-prediction-market Sun, 20 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Courts A federal court in Northern California extended a briefing deadline in the Robinhood prediction market class action, which alleges illegal gambling. https://hodluppod.com/news/arxiv-paper-details-atomicity-violations-in-onchain-prediction https://hodluppod.com/news/arxiv-paper-details-atomicity-violations-in-onchain-prediction Sun, 20 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Research An arXiv preprint examines 'ghost-filled orders', atomicity violations in non-custodial prediction markets, and how to detect them and measure their cost. https://hodluppod.com/news/cftc-finalizes-whistleblower-rule-amendments-bolstering-enforcem https://hodluppod.com/news/cftc-finalizes-whistleblower-rule-amendments-bolstering-enforcem Sat, 19 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation The CFTC finalized amendments to its Part 165 whistleblower award rules, effective October 16, 2026, to make the program more efficient and predictable. https://hodluppod.com/news/nyse-arca-files-proposed-rule-change-for-binary-kpi-options https://hodluppod.com/news/nyse-arca-files-proposed-rule-change-for-binary-kpi-options Fri, 18 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation This filing could pave the way for a new class of event contracts on a major U.S. exchange, expanding access to regulated forecasting markets. https://hodluppod.com/news/arxiv-paper-explores-clob-and-amm-prediction-market-coexistence https://hodluppod.com/news/arxiv-paper-explores-clob-and-amm-prediction-market-coexistence Fri, 18 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Research An arXiv preprint by Chengqi Zang, Gabriel Andrade and Tomoyuki Nakajima asks who aggregates information when CLOB and AMM prediction markets coexist. https://hodluppod.com/news/kalshi-adds-counsel-in-blue-lake-rancheria-case https://hodluppod.com/news/kalshi-adds-counsel-in-blue-lake-rancheria-case Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Courts Kalshi has added new counsel in Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi in the Northern District of California, as the fight over sports event contracts goes on. https://hodluppod.com/news/u-s-court-grants-extension-in-lavery-v-kalshi-inc-case https://hodluppod.com/news/u-s-court-grants-extension-in-lavery-v-kalshi-inc-case Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Courts The U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada recently extended deadlines for reply briefs in the ongoing legal challenge against prediction market operator Kalshi Inc. https://hodluppod.com/news/u-s-senate-blocks-clarity-act-amid-tribal-prediction-market-conc https://hodluppod.com/news/u-s-senate-blocks-clarity-act-amid-tribal-prediction-market-conc Wed, 16 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation A cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed 49-50 in the U.S. Senate, after tribal groups raised concerns over prediction markets. https://hodluppod.com/news/new-arxiv-research-examines-polymarket-oracle-adjudication https://hodluppod.com/news/new-arxiv-research-examines-polymarket-oracle-adjudication Tue, 15 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Research A new arXiv paper examines how Polymarket resolves its event contracts, and why oracle adjudication and semantic governance are not the same as settlement. https://hodluppod.com/news/polymarket-details-nfl-market-dynamics-playoff-outlook https://hodluppod.com/news/polymarket-details-nfl-market-dynamics-playoff-outlook Sat, 12 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Markets Polymarket's latest 'The Oracle' report offers insights into current NFL event contract pricing and potential shifts as the season progresses. https://hodluppod.com/blog/prediction-markets-2026-the-truth-machine-got-rich https://hodluppod.com/blog/prediction-markets-2026-the-truth-machine-got-rich Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala & Dren Hima Research Our 2026 prediction markets report: Kalshi took 82% of August volume, up to 60% of Polymarket volume was wash traded, and 3% of traders set the price. https://hodluppod.com/news/common-s3nse-2026-opens-in-amsterdam https://hodluppod.com/news/common-s3nse-2026-opens-in-amsterdam Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Privacy Common S3nse 2026 — the rebranded ETHDam — opened in Amsterdam with 60+ speakers and 99 hackers, as the EU's July 2027 privacy deadline closes in. https://hodluppod.com/news/wise-to-resubmit-us-bank-charter-application-under-genius-act https://hodluppod.com/news/wise-to-resubmit-us-bank-charter-application-under-genius-act Sun, 26 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Crypto Banks The OCC denied Wise's application for a US national trust bank charter over compliance issues, and Wise plans to reapply under the GENIUS Act. https://hodluppod.com/news/kweather-flare-launch-pilot-to-tokenize-weather-data https://hodluppod.com/news/kweather-flare-launch-pilot-to-tokenize-weather-data Sat, 25 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala RWAs South Korean weather platform Kweather and Flare launched a pilot to bring weather data onchain and explore tokenized weather derivatives. https://hodluppod.com/news/fidelity-urges-senate-to-pass-clarity-act-for-digital-asset-rule https://hodluppod.com/news/fidelity-urges-senate-to-pass-clarity-act-for-digital-asset-rule Sat, 25 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Fidelity Public Policy urged the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, arguing clear digital asset rules would boost investor confidence and US leadership. https://hodluppod.com/news/robinhood-chain-tokenized-rwas-surge-fivefold-to-70m https://hodluppod.com/news/robinhood-chain-tokenized-rwas-surge-fivefold-to-70m Sat, 25 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala RWAs Tokenized real-world assets on Robinhood Chain jumped fivefold to about $70 million, with daily tokenized stock volume reaching $55 million. https://hodluppod.com/news/galaxy-digital-cuts-clarity-act-passage-odds-to-30 https://hodluppod.com/news/galaxy-digital-cuts-clarity-act-passage-odds-to-30 Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Galaxy Digital Research cut its odds of the CLARITY Act passing by year-end to 30%, citing too few votes and strong Democratic opposition. https://hodluppod.com/news/htx-included-in-eus-21st-russia-sanctions-package https://hodluppod.com/news/htx-included-in-eus-21st-russia-sanctions-package Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation The EU added crypto exchange HTX, formerly Huobi, to its 21st sanctions package against Russia, banning transactions over alleged sanctions evasion. https://hodluppod.com/news/b3-registers-first-tokenized-dairy-cow-loan https://hodluppod.com/news/b3-registers-first-tokenized-dairy-cow-loan Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala RWAs Brazil's B3 exchange registered its first loan backed by tokenized live dairy cattle: R$100,000 for a farm in Paraná, secured by ten dairy cows. https://hodluppod.com/news/uniswap-labs-launches-permissioned-pools-for-regulated-tokenized https://hodluppod.com/news/uniswap-labs-launches-permissioned-pools-for-regulated-tokenized Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala RWAs Uniswap Labs has introduced Permissioned Pools on Uniswap v4, allowing regulated tokenized assets to trade onchain with integrated compliance checks. https://hodluppod.com/news/goldman-sachs-ceo-backs-clarity-act-for-stablecoin-regulation https://hodluppod.com/news/goldman-sachs-ceo-backs-clarity-act-for-stablecoin-regulation Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon endorsed the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill, despite other banks' concerns over its stablecoin provisions. https://hodluppod.com/news/mexc-july-2026-proof-of-reserves-shows-281-btc-ratio https://hodluppod.com/news/mexc-july-2026-proof-of-reserves-shows-281-btc-ratio Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation MEXC has released its July 2026 Proof of Reserves report, audited by Hacken, revealing a 281% BTC reserve ratio and over 100% for other major assets. https://hodluppod.com/news/htx-rotates-wallets-post-uk-sanctions-trm-labs-reports https://hodluppod.com/news/htx-rotates-wallets-post-uk-sanctions-trm-labs-reports Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Crypto exchange HTX has been rotating its hot wallets across four major blockchains since the UK sanctioned it in May, according to TRM Labs. https://hodluppod.com/news/xstocks-expands-to-hong-kong-uk-south-korea https://hodluppod.com/news/xstocks-expands-to-hong-kong-uk-south-korea Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala RWAs Payward, Kraken's parent company, is expanding its xStocks tokenized equities platform to stocks from Hong Kong, the UK and South Korea, with GTN. https://hodluppod.com/news/balance-coin-blc-plummets-99-after-915k-oracle-exploit https://hodluppod.com/news/balance-coin-blc-plummets-99-after-915k-oracle-exploit Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Stablecoins Algorithmic stablecoin Balance Coin (BLC) crashed more than 99% after an attacker exploited a price oracle flaw and drained about $915,000. https://hodluppod.com/news/russian-duma-passes-crypto-law-with-3-800-retail-cap https://hodluppod.com/news/russian-duma-passes-crypto-law-with-3-800-retail-cap Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Russia's State Duma passed a crypto market law that caps retail investment at about $3,800 a year and legalizes crypto for cross-border trade. https://hodluppod.com/news/augustus-secures-180m-seriesb-for-ai-powered-clearing-bank https://hodluppod.com/news/augustus-secures-180m-seriesb-for-ai-powered-clearing-bank Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Crypto Banks Augustus raised a $180 million Series B at a $1 billion valuation to expand its AI-driven clearing bank for global dollar access and stablecoins. https://hodluppod.com/news/network-school-malaysia-license-revoked-cease-operations https://hodluppod.com/news/network-school-malaysia-license-revoked-cease-operations Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Malaysia's Iskandar Puteri City Council revoked the business license of Balaji Srinivasan's Network School in Forest City, ordering it to close. https://hodluppod.com/news/exodus-cuts-25-workforce-pivots-to-stablecoin-payments https://hodluppod.com/news/exodus-cuts-25-workforce-pivots-to-stablecoin-payments Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Crypto Banks Exodus Movement, Inc. announced a 25% global workforce reduction to streamline operations and focus on building a full-stack stablecoin payments platform. https://hodluppod.com/news/hut-8-secures-ai-data-center-lease-iren https://hodluppod.com/news/hut-8-secures-ai-data-center-lease-iren Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala DePIN Hut 8 secured a second 15-year, $9.8 billion lease for its Beacon Point AI data center, while IREN announced $2.8 billion in new AI cloud contracts. https://hodluppod.com/news/tether-usdt-faces-july-2028-us-platform-deadline-genius-act https://hodluppod.com/news/tether-usdt-faces-july-2028-us-platform-deadline-genius-act Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Atis Shala Regulation Tether's USDT faces a critical July 2028 deadline to comply with the U.S. GENIUS Act, which could restrict its availability on American crypto platforms.