The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published a working paper highlighting the dual impact of dollar-pegged stablecoins on economies with fixed or heavily managed exchange rates. The paper, titled “Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes” and authored by economist Brandon Joel Tan, concludes that while these digital assets can significantly improve access to foreign currency, they also possess the potential to amplify currency runs during periods of acute financial pressure.
Published on July 9, 2026, the research models how stablecoins interact with parallel foreign-exchange (FX) markets when official dollar access is rationed. In such environments, stablecoins offer a more accessible avenue for individuals and businesses to obtain dollar-like claims, particularly when traditional banking or official exchange channels are unable to meet demand. This expanded access can improve the allocation of foreign currency and make beliefs about exchange rate misalignment more informative, potentially raising overall welfare when economic conditions are stable.
However, the paper also identifies a critical vulnerability: the very transparency and high-frequency pricing of stablecoins can become a catalyst for coordinated exits from local currencies. When a country's official exchange rate deviates significantly from the market rate, the visible price of stablecoins can serve as a real-time benchmark, signaling growing dollar scarcity. This clear signal can prompt a large number of users to abandon the local currency simultaneously, thereby accelerating and intensifying a currency crisis.
The IMF's analysis suggests that this coordination externality becomes particularly costly when exchange rate misalignment is high. A more precise public signal from stablecoin markets can compress belief dispersion among market participants, strengthening incentives for a synchronized exit and potentially negating the benefits of improved access. To mitigate these risks, the paper proposes a state-contingent policy approach. This would involve preserving low-cost access to stablecoins during normal economic conditions while implementing temporary, targeted measures to manage unusually large or panic-driven flows when misalignment is high.
The findings resonate with real-world observations, where dollar stablecoins like USDT have already been utilized as unofficial foreign exchange benchmarks in countries facing currency controls or high inflation. For instance, reports from June 2025 indicated Bolivian airport retailers pricing goods in USDT, and in 2024, Argentines reportedly used “crypto caves” to exchange pesos for dollar-stablecoins at unofficial market rates to preserve savings. These examples underscore the practical utility of stablecoins in circumventing official restrictions but also highlight the potential for widespread currency substitution.
This IMF working paper contributes to a growing body of regulatory discourse surrounding stablecoins. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) previously warned in March that dollar stablecoins could expose emerging economies to currency substitution, weaken monetary policy effectiveness, and facilitate the circumvention of capital-flow measures. The IMF continues to monitor these developments closely, offering analysis and policy advice to member countries as stablecoins integrate further into the global financial system.
Original announcement: International Monetary Fund