Bitcoin to $1.3 Million? Bitwise Research Expert Explains How

Recorded at Solana Breakpoint 2025, Abu Dhabi, day two.

Hodl Up: Hello and welcome to Solana Breakpoint day two. The Hodl Up team is here with Danny Nelson from Bitwise. Danny, thank you for finding the time to join us today. We're really happy to have you here.

Danny: Good to be here.

Hodl Up: Talk to us, man. Let's go through your crypto journey. I know you're ex-CoinDesk, but tell us how you entered the space and your journey to being the research guy at Bitwise.

Danny: I started playing around with Bitcoin in 2015-2016 and stuck around. I got more excited about things like Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP going into 2017. I bought the right things, which turned into the wrong things. Round-tripped. Many such cases. Then I didn't think about crypto much until 2019, when I joined CoinDesk and started writing about everything from how companies were using blockchains to track lettuce, to tokenization, early on in that arc. I started writing about Solana really seriously in 2021 and became CoinDesk's chief Solana reporter. I've been to basically every Breakpoint since. In April this year I joined the research team at Bitwise because, after all those years of watching crypto grow, I realized this really was an institutional moment for the asset. With ETFs coming online and regulations changing, there has been no better point in crypto's history to explore this asset class from the perspective of the big money, so to speak.

Hodl Up: You mentioned 2021, when you became the chief Solana reporter. We remember 2021 and early 2022, when Solana was really having a hard time. How did you experience that from the reporting side? Personally, I didn't believe that much in Solana. This guy was in my ear saying, "No, you have to buy Solana, they're going to come back." And I was like, nah, it's not going to be what it was. Now I'm a firm believer that Solana is going places. The institutional-level adoption is just crazy. So how was it for you, and how much do you believe Solana will actually make it?

Danny: Back then, as a reporter, I wasn't really asking myself whether it would make it or not. I was thinking more about how we were going to tell the story. But that was an important point in time for Solana. For reference, we're talking about the period before FTX, which was its own trial for Solana. There was a very long period where Solana would crash and go offline. Blocks would stop being produced. It happened many times, four or five times over a year or two, and it was a big issue for Solana. Being a reporter at the time meant going into the Discords, talking to validators, building those relationships, and when the network fell over, watching the coordination happen, sometimes in Google Docs, with people saying, "All right, we're going to restart at this block height." But since then we haven't seen a network outage in well over a year, and the developer effort that has gone into making Solana not just work, but work really well, is tremendous. Today we saw Kevin Bowers from Jump Crypto on stage talking about Firedancer, which is finally really starting to pay off. We have DoubleZero building specialty fiber-optic networks so the network can run faster. We have the Anza team and the Solana Foundation working on Alpenglow, a new consensus mechanism. What really sets Solana apart for me, relative to other assets, is that pace of change, that rate of change. Yes, it's true that the blockchain has stopped working in the past, and that's not acceptable if financial markets are going to come on-chain, as we think they will. But that iteration and development has been really important and informative for the network's growth.

Hodl Up: It rose from the ashes multiple times, and I think that's why people stick with Solana, and more and more people are joining. I know a lot of people didn't like the memecoin cycle at all. I'm one of them.

Danny: Purists.

Hodl Up: But the likes of Pump.fun did a lot of good in the sense that they stress-tested the ecosystem. They really showed it can handle that many transactions and that much volume. And I'm glad to see Solana looking more and more professional today: not going the traditional route, but becoming a serious player, with the likes of Bitwise supporting the Solana ecosystem as well. How has that change been over the years? Going from the yacht-party days, to a network that congested a lot, to basically a memecoin casino, and now, they don't even use crypto terms in their bio because they're "internet capital markets" and trying to onboard everyone. How was that journey?

Danny: Branding is really important in everything, and in crypto in particular, because we're at an inflection point where the people who are in are already in. There will be some more people who become degens, so to speak, who build their lives and culture around crypto, as many people here have. As for memecoins, it's hard for me to say whether they're good or bad. I certainly think memecoins are not the best way to grow your capital. They're a fun way to waste some time. I've done it myself; I've played around on Pump.fun. But it's important because it brings people in. It gets people to set up a wallet and buy some SOL. It gets people to think, "Okay, I just lost $100 on I don't even know what, but I have some capital left over. Maybe there's staking. I can earn 7%. Oh, that's really interesting." It gets them on board and then gets them more interested. Returning to branding: it's really important that Solana, and all of crypto, finds ways to tell its story beyond the jargon we use. The degen terms are important. They're the bedrock, the trenches. You can build a civilization on top of the trenches. But the way crypto is going, the most interesting story for me right now is the institutional space. It might not be as crazy, but that's also a good thing. It's a sign of maturity.

Hodl Up: Before we get into the institutional side: I have a lot of friends who got into crypto because of memecoins and the likes of Pump.fun, and they obviously lost money, because only about 0.07% of people made money.

Danny: It's not good.

Hodl Up: They got cold feet about crypto and never want to go back. My opinion is that it was the worst possible starting point in crypto, because when we joined, back in 2020, everyone was building something. There were fewer than 10,000 altcoins in the market. Yes, it was easier to make money because the liquidity was spread over fewer assets, but people were building.

Danny: Nowadays the most important way for crypto, and for Solana, to grow is real use cases, like real-world assets: taking financial instruments that exist out in the ether, not on Ethereum, out in the ether, and finding ways to make them more useful. Take something that doesn't have much liquidity because it doesn't have the right venue, tokenize it and put it on Solana. You may not find buyers immediately, but it might be easier to trade, and to borrow and lend against it. So you can make assets more useful and move them around a lot faster. I was speaking earlier today about whether tokenization makes something more valuable. It doesn't really make any given asset more valuable. What it does is give that asset more potential to unlock its value.

Hodl Up: It makes it more accessible.

Danny: It makes it more accessible and more useful.

Hodl Up: I really like RWAs and DePIN. But in your personal opinion, which sector of crypto could be the next one to take off? Right now I know many DePIN projects with millions of users. They're bringing new people in who don't even know they're being onboarded to crypto. They use the apps without knowing they're essentially crypto apps. Apart from DePIN, does any other sector stand a chance compared to it? I think DePIN has the most value right now, with the technology and the people we have, for continuing to onboard normies.

Danny: DePIN has the clearest path to growing in that seamless way. I was speaking to Hivemapper yesterday. They're building a mapping service that creates really valuable data that companies are willing to pay for. Those companies might not care, or even know, that Hivemapper collects the data by using a token to incentivize people to put a camera in their car and drive around. But that's how they do it, and the result is a valuable product. That's the path forward. So yes, DePIN has a special growth trajectory. Stablecoins as well, I'd say, because of regulation in the US as the market leader. I hate to focus on the US when we're in Abu Dhabi, but things like the GENIUS Act will really help stablecoin growth accelerate once it comes into effect in about a year. It's about finding ways for companies and businesses to have their own cryptocurrencies, make them more useful, and unlock those payment opportunities.

Hodl Up: I think stablecoins have the clearest use case right now, maybe not on par with DePIN: transferring money anywhere. I'm not from Abu Dhabi, so if I need to send money back home from here, the easiest way would be stablecoins. With banks it would be harder. Let's go to the institutional part, Bitwise. What do you think about the institutionalization of crypto right now, especially Solana? I like it, but I think there are some ethos issues.

Danny: It's a fair point. To back up: the reason I got into Bitcoin was that I thought it was really cool to have permissionless money, peer-to-peer electronic payments. Of course that's not what Bitcoin is anymore. It was arguably financialized long ago. It's still a decentralized network, but we can't mine from our laptops. It just exists in the world. So I think the best way to see this is as a natural evolution, one that doesn't necessarily cannibalize what already exists. The fact that there's an ETF doesn't change that you or I could go buy SOL and stake it ourselves, run our own nodes, maybe run our own validators if we're up to it, or borrow and lend in DeFi. All of that is still doable. What ETFs allow is for people who want to participate in this revolution, but don't want to take on that burden themselves, to take part. That's the opportunity.

Hodl Up: I feel like people fear they're losing control, losing their say over what happens with this network in particular. I've seen so many tweets that, whenever the price declines, immediately point the finger at big institutions, at the ETF companies, for example. How do we convince them that's not necessarily the case?

Danny: Let me talk about ETFs and BSOL for a second. At Bitwise we have BSOL, the Solana staking ETF. It launched in the US about two months ago, and I think it has gathered $600 million in assets, even more, over a period when Solana has declined. I don't remember exactly where the SOL price was when the ETF launched, but I know the market has fallen a lot since. Yet almost every day as it's declined, you've seen inflows: more people buying than selling. From that alone, it's clear the ETF isn't selling and causing the decline. That sell pressure is coming from somewhere else. That's one way to look at it. Another way: money comes in and money goes out. Supply and demand. If there's more demand for a scarce asset, the price rises, and if there's less, it falls. Just because the price is falling doesn't mean institutions specifically are selling. And if they are, it's not necessarily a bad thing, because institutional participation is one of the big reasons crypto is going where it's going. Another thing to consider is volatility. Over time, crypto is becoming less volatile. It's hard to see that when you get a 30% drawdown in a very short period, but if you look at Bitcoin over a long time, volatility is falling, and at Bitwise we expect it to keep falling as more institutions come in. So it does change the nature of the space, but it doesn't fundamentally change everything about how it works.

Hodl Up: People tend to forget things. I remember when it was still a question whether this would even be around in 10 years. I still remember January 2024. It was one of the happiest days of my life, when the ETFs were approved, for two reasons. One, I finally made some money with leverage trading. I just longed everything.

Danny: There you go.

Hodl Up: The second was that I knew this industry was here to stay. Bitcoin is on Wall Street now, and you can't just take it out of there. Before that, there were still concerns that someone would pull the plug.

Danny: Or that Satoshi will come online.

Hodl Up: For everyone's sake, hopefully Satoshi stays gone.

Danny: Yes, please. It's very true: the fact that ETFs exist and institutions are participating is a sign that this has gotten too big to ignore. We're well past the point where there's any real fear that this is going south. Our long-term view of the entire space is really positive, because we think this is a true alternative asset with asymmetric appeal to investors.

Hodl Up: Not just Bitcoin: take all the other assets that have ETFs live right now. In your personal opinion, will those assets stay decentralized, and can they keep working toward more decentralization through institutionalization? Will it be a barrier? I know many people who say, just as Dren said, that institutionalization will be a problem for decentralization, but I think there can be a middle ground. What do you think?

Danny: I think decentralization of the network and ownership of the coin are two related but separate things. Take Bitcoin: Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy own, I don't know, about 2% of all Bitcoin, and his intent is to own all of it. Leaving that strategy aside, the fact that Michael Saylor wants to buy everyone's Bitcoin centralizes ownership, or is a force pushing ownership toward him. But the Bitcoin network, meaning the miners that power it, whether it's this mining operation in Texas or that one in Bhutan, is still decentralized. It's hard to generalize, because each network approaches decentralization differently, but I think the point broadly stands across all networks: just because someone holds more of the coin doesn't mean the network is more centralized. It's true, though, that for proof-of-stake networks like Solana and Ethereum, basically most networks, when you hold more of the coin and stake it in one place, you do accumulate control. But I'm not too worried that institutionalization will push crypto somewhere it wouldn't ultimately go anyway. If we tell ourselves the goal is for these assets to eat the world, there's no way they eat the world unless the world participates the way it has in every other asset class.

Hodl Up: Going back to Bitwise: I know you do a lot of research reports, and since you're the research guy, there are forecasts in there too. I'd be lying if I said I read the reports, but I did skim them. I want to hear from you: what are some of those forecasts, what should we expect, and what are the factors?

Danny: One thing to stay tuned for: we're working on our annual predictions piece, 10 predictions for what will happen in crypto in 2026. It'll be a mix of price predictions and what we think will happen in the industry: what activity we'll see, who will adopt what, and what they'll build. That should be out in a couple of weeks, so that's one big piece to look forward to. Something else we've talked about recently is our firm view that Bitcoin will go over a million dollars by 2035. That comes from looking at where it is today and how we assume institutions, asset managers and individuals will change their allocations. Right now people say everyone should have a 1% allocation. We think that will become the norm, but also the smaller number; we think 5% is a more likely outcome for institutions and the whole investing world. If you model that out, the number we've come to is $1.3 million by 2035. That's where we think Bitcoin has a very reasonable chance of going.

Hodl Up: I've seen news articles about some banks in Switzerland suggesting that their clients invest up to 2% of their wealth in Bitcoin. So Bitcoin is now the institutional coin. But what about Solana? Do you think it will reach the same level of adoption? Bitcoin is digital gold, so what's Solana's position here?

Danny: Exactly. We view Bitcoin as digital gold, a store-of-value asset, and we understand it through that lens. Solana is different. Its proposition isn't to be a store of value; it's to be an internet capital markets platform, the home for all these things. We don't have a firm number or a price prediction for Solana right now, but we're very bullish on it, because we think it's really well positioned to capture that business since it's so fast and cheap.

Hodl Up: Now I want to hear your take on AI. Is it just hype, a bubble as some people say, or is it here to stay? Is it going to be dystopian? Will robots start fighting us? I want the institutional take.

Danny: I'll say that Bitwise is the number one crypto asset manager, this is not investment advice, and we don't focus on AI, so my opinion on AI is no better than anyone else's on the street. One thing to think about with the intersection of AI and trading: AI, by a different name, has been running algorithmic trading for years. That already happened, a long time ago. What we're seeing now is generative AI: you put in a natural-language prompt and it generates whatever you want. That's different, it's new, it's powerful, and it's going to change the world. But I don't think robot enslavement is coming tomorrow.

Hodl Up: Perfect. Maybe a little later than that. We'll wait a couple of years.

Danny: But if it does come, I hope they take stablecoins.

Hodl Up: They should. If AI takes over, it will do it through crypto.

Danny: It would make a lot of sense for them. It's digital, quick and instant.

Hodl Up: Exactly. All right, this one's more geopolitical, or not quite geopolitical. Do you think the US will remain the leader in this space? I believe it will if the current administration's approach continues, and hopefully the next one's too. But does any other region have what it takes to stand up to the US?

Danny: I think it's very meaningful that this conference is here in the Emirates. It says a lot about where the money and the power are in the world. The US is the financial capital of the world, and I don't think that will change anytime soon, so the current administration's view of crypto is uniquely valuable and powerful in shaping how crypto works around the world. But it would be silly of me to have too American-centric a viewpoint. You can't ignore Asia. That's where so much of the developer activity and power comes from, and a lot of the investor base. From EMEA all the way through Asia, it's too big and too important to ignore.

Hodl Up: I can tell you my opinion on this: I know for sure that Europe, the EU, isn't going to be a big player.

Danny: I probably agree with that view. The state of regulation in the EU is uniquely special, and things move deliberately in Europe.

Hodl Up: And to be prudent, maybe we should say this isn't intended for UK audiences either.

Danny: Of course.

Hodl Up: We'll get banned if we don't. All right, to wrap it up: do you have a message for the viewers? What should they look forward to in 2026?

Danny: At the moment we're in a bit of a drawdown, and in moments like this it's hard, especially for people earlier in their crypto journey who bought the top and are now down a lot. But it's important to take a big-picture view of this space and understand that the developers are still working. This conference isn't happening at all-time highs, nowhere near, but you wouldn't know it from being here. And that's not because of froth or ridiculous parties; it's because of the energy and excitement around the products being built on Solana. This conference does something really unique: five-minute keynotes for every product that wants to talk. They go up, pitch themselves to the audience and say, "This is why we're interesting, and why we're interesting on Solana." That's a really powerful message, and I think we have to lean back on it when we look at the market.

Hodl Up: And if, in a parallel world, you happen to have an 11th prediction in the 2026 report, make sure it says Hodl Up will be the next big crypto podcast. Anyway, thank you for joining us. You heard it from the Max Verstappen of crypto research himself. Thanks again so much for being here.

Danny: Thanks for having me.

Hodl Up: Thank you. All right.